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Sassuolo vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spal
Spal
2/24/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 25Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sassuolo47%
×Draw24%
Spal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.66
Spal
1.24

Sassuolo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.55
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.55
Spal
1.76

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
71%
Sassuolo or Spal
76%
Draw or Spal
53%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
25%
Spal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
81%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
49%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
23%
Spal 1+ goals
71%
Spal 2+ goals
35%
Spal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
62%
Spal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.55 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spal attack 0.92 + Sassuolo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sassuolo scores more
47%
level
24%
Spal scores more
29%

Sassuolo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sassuolo 1 – 1 Spal

Sassuolo and Spal drew 1-1 in Serie A on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.