Sassuolo 5–1 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sassuolo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sampdoria

12/8/2024

Serie B · Round 16MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sassuolo58%

×Draw22%

Sampdoria20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.01

Sassuolo

1.90

Sampdoria

1.01

Sassuolo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 58 away

2.26

creates per match

1.14

0.89

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sassuolo

2.26

Sampdoria

1.14

allows per match

Sassuolo

0.89

Sampdoria

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

80%

Sassuolo or Sampdoria

78%

Draw or Sampdoria

42%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

34%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

85%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

56%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

29%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

64%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

27%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

75%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 2.26 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Sassuolo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sassuolo scores more

58%

level

22%

Sampdoria scores more

20%

Sassuolo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff