Sassuolo 4–2 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lecce

M. Muldur 83'

J. Boga 78'

D. Berardi 63' (pen)

F. Caputo 5'

M. Mancosu 67' (pen)

F. Lucioni 27'

7/4/2020

Serie A · Round 30MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo42%

×Draw28%

Lecce30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.07

Sassuolo

1.31

Lecce

1.07

Sassuolo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

0.74

1.41

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Lecce

0.74

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Lecce

1.58

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Lecce-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

70%

Sassuolo or Lecce

72%

Draw or Lecce

58%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

19%

Lecce wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

73%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

38%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

14%

Lecce 1+ goals

66%

Lecce 2+ goals

29%

Lecce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

58%

Lecce (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Lecce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lecce attack 0.74 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sassuolo scores more

42%

level

28%

Lecce scores more

30%

Sassuolo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Domenico Berardi

Sassuolo · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

F. Caputo↳ M. Locatelli

22'

K. Babacar

27'

F. Lucioni↳ M. Calderoni

32'

F. Caputo

34'

J. Petriccione

46'

H. Traore← F. Djuricic

50'

F. Djuricic

54'

Marlon

57'

G. Kyriakopoulos← F. Peluso

62'

N. Paz

63'

D. BerardiPenalty

66'

J. Petriccione← F. Falco

66'

Y. Skakhov← M. Mancosu

67'

M. MancosuPenalty

78'

J. Boga

83'

M. Muldur↳ D. Berardi

84'

J. Boga← F. Magnanelli

84'

M. Muldur← J. Toljan

90'

P. Tachtsidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloLecce

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots9

4Corners4

15Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots9

7On Target3

0Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

608Total Passes299

559Accurate Passes252

92%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Lecce

Sassuolo beat Lecce 4-2 in Serie A on July 4, 2020.

Goals: F. Caputo (5'), F. Lucioni (27'), D. Berardi (63' pen), M. Mancosu (67' pen), J. Boga (78'), M. Muldur (83').

Sassuolo controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio nell'Emilia.

Sassuolo vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Lecce