Lecce 0–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | League #137

Lecce

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

L. D'Andrea 79'

T. Muharemović 13'

9/24/2024

League #137 · 2nd RoundStadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lecce49%

×Draw22%

Sassuolo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LecceExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.50

Lecce

2.00

Sassuolo

1.50

Lecce creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Lecce

1.00

Sassuolo

1.00

allows per match

Lecce

2.00

Sassuolo

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lecce or draw

71%

Lecce or Sassuolo

78%

Draw or Sassuolo

51%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+

28%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals

86%

Lecce 2+ goals

59%

Lecce 3+ goals

32%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

78%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

44%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)

63%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.00 + Sassuolo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sassuolo attack 1.00 + Lecce defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lecce scores more

49%

level

22%

Sassuolo scores more

29%

Lecce at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

G. Satalino

Sassuolo · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

T. Muharemović↳ N. Pierini

19'

Cristian Volpato

46'

A. Rebić← S. Pierotti

46'

A. Gallo← L. Banda

54'

Josh Doig

56'

E. Pieragnolo← J. Doig

56'

A. Ghion← N. Pierini

62'

R. Burnete← F. Marchwiński

62'

Kialonda Gaspar← A. Pelmard

64'

Luca Lipani

71'

L. Moro← F. Russo

71'

L. D'Andrea← C. Volpato

71'

J. Antiste← F. Caligara

79'

L. D'Andrea↳ L. Moro

80'

Luca D'Andrea

80'

L. Hasa← P. Dorgu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LecceSassuolo

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots12

8Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target5

6Off Target6

1Blocked1

4Inside Box8

10Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

571Total Passes314

497Accurate Passes242

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2