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Sassuolo vs Juventus — Serie A 2026

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus
Juventus
2/10/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 23Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo27%
×Draw27%
Juventus46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.03
Juventus
1.44

Juventus creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.05
Juventus
1.47

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.41
Juventus
1.01

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more
Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
54%
Sassuolo or Juventus
73%
Draw or Juventus
73%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
10%
Juventus wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
64%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
28%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
9%
Juventus 1+ goals
76%
Juventus 2+ goals
42%
Juventus 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
37%
Juventus (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Juventus attack 1.47 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sassuolo scores more
27%
level
27%
Juventus scores more
46%

Juventus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Juventus

Juventus beat Sassuolo 3-0 in Serie A on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.