Sassuolo 4–1 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crotone

M. Locatelli 90+3'

F. Caputo 85', 58' (pen)

D. Berardi 19'

S. Nwankwo 49' (pen)

10/3/2020

Serie A · Round 3MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sassuolo55%

×Draw21%

Crotone24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.31

Sassuolo

2.10

Crotone

1.31

Sassuolo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

1.55

creates per match

1.08

1.55

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.55

Crotone

1.08

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.55

Crotone

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

76%

Sassuolo or Crotone

79%

Draw or Crotone

45%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

33%

Crotone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

88%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

62%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

35%

Crotone 1+ goals

73%

Crotone 2+ goals

38%

Crotone 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

70%

Crotone (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.55 + Crotone defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.10

Crotone attack 1.08 + Sassuolo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sassuolo scores more

55%

level

21%

Crotone scores more

24%

Sassuolo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

D. Berardi

Sassuolo · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

D. Berardi↳ G. Defrel

24'

Vlad Chiricheş

34'

K. Ayhan← V. Chiricheș

49'

S. NwankwoPenalty

53'

G. Kiriakopoulos← M. Müldür

53'

Pedro Obiang← M. Bourabia

56'

Giorgos KyriakopoulosGoal cancelled

57'

Simy

58'

F. CaputoPenalty

63'

Lisandro Magallán

65'

Luca Cigarini

74'

Giorgos Kyriakopoulos

77'

D. Drăguş← M. Vulić

77'

T. Gomelt← L. Cigarini

84'

A. Rispoli← Pedro Pereira

85'

F. Caputo↳ D. Berardi

90'

F. Peluso← G. Defrel

90'

H. Traorè← F. Đuričić

90+3'

M. Locatelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloCrotone

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots15

3Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target6

2Off Target5

1Blocked4

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

481Total Passes387

397Accurate Passes308

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3