Sassuolo 3–2 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cremonese

3/6/2023

Serie A · Round 25MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sassuolo42%

×Draw27%

Cremonese30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.09

Sassuolo

1.34

Cremonese

1.09

Sassuolo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

1.02

creates per match

0.70

1.48

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Cremonese

0.70

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Cremonese

1.66

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Cremonese+0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

70%

Sassuolo or Cremonese

73%

Draw or Cremonese

58%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

20%

Cremonese wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

74%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

39%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

15%

Cremonese 1+ goals

66%

Cremonese 2+ goals

30%

Cremonese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

58%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Cremonese away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Cremonese defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cremonese attack 0.70 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sassuolo scores more

42%

level

27%

Cremonese scores more

30%

Sassuolo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff