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Sassuolo vs Chievo — Serie A 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chievo
Chievo
4/4/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 30Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sassuolo54%
×Draw23%
Chievo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.77
Chievo
1.06

Sassuolo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.55
Chievo
0.58

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.55
Chievo
2.00

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
77%
Sassuolo or Chievo
77%
Draw or Chievo
46%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
30%
Chievo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
83%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
53%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
26%
Chievo 1+ goals
65%
Chievo 2+ goals
29%
Chievo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
70%
Chievo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

Chievo away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.55 + Chievo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chievo attack 0.58 + Sassuolo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sassuolo scores more
54%
level
23%
Chievo scores more
23%

Sassuolo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Chievo

Sassuolo beat Chievo 4-0 in Serie A on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.