Sassuolo 1–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento

12/11/2020

Serie A · Round 11MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sassuolo48%

×Draw24%

Benevento28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.25

Sassuolo

1.69

Benevento

1.25

Sassuolo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 23 away

1.55

creates per match

0.96

1.55

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.55

Benevento

0.96

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.55

Benevento

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

72%

Sassuolo or Benevento

76%

Draw or Benevento

52%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

25%

Benevento wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

82%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

50%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

24%

Benevento 1+ goals

71%

Benevento 2+ goals

36%

Benevento 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

63%

Benevento (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

Benevento away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.55 + Benevento defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Benevento attack 0.96 + Sassuolo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sassuolo scores more

48%

level

24%

Benevento scores more

28%

Sassuolo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff