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Sassuolo vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bari
Bari
3/9/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 29MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sassuolo57%
×Draw23%
Bari20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.80
Bari
0.97

Sassuolo creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
2.26
Bari
1.05

allows per match

Sassuolo
0.89
Bari
1.35

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par
Bari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
80%
Sassuolo or Bari
77%
Draw or Bari
43%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
32%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
83%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
54%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
27%
Bari 1+ goals
62%
Bari 2+ goals
25%
Bari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
74%
Bari (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Bari away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 2.26 + Bari defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bari attack 1.05 + Sassuolo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sassuolo scores more
57%
level
23%
Bari scores more
20%

Sassuolo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo vs Bari

Sassuolo and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.