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Sassuolo U20 vs Milan U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Milan U20
Milan U20
12/18/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sassuolo U2042%
×Draw25%
Milan U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U20
1.47
Milan U20
1.28

Sassuolo U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U20
1.56
Milan U20
1.38

allows per match

Sassuolo U20
1.18
Milan U20
1.38

finishing

Sassuolo U20+0.00on par
Milan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U20 ↓

Milan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sassuolo U20 or draw
67%
Sassuolo U20 or Milan U20
75%
Draw or Milan U20
58%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
20%
Milan U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
77%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
43%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
18%
Milan U20 1+ goals
72%
Milan U20 2+ goals
37%
Milan U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Milan U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Milan U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.56 + Milan U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Milan U20 attack 1.38 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sassuolo U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Milan U20 scores more
33%

Sassuolo U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sassuolo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo U20 vs Milan U20

Milan U20 beat Sassuolo U20 4-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Enzo Ricci in Sassuolo.