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Sassuolo U19 vs Verona U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U19
Sassuolo U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Verona U19
Verona U19
8/27/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sassuolo U1950%
×Draw23%
Verona U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U19
1.78
Verona U19
1.23

Sassuolo U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U19
1.88
Verona U19
1.31

allows per match

Sassuolo U19
1.16
Verona U19
1.69

finishing

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par
Verona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U19 ↓

Verona U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sassuolo U19 or draw
74%
Sassuolo U19 or Verona U19
77%
Draw or Verona U19
50%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+
28%
Verona U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals
83%
Sassuolo U19 2+ goals
53%
Sassuolo U19 3+ goals
26%
Verona U19 1+ goals
71%
Verona U19 2+ goals
35%
Verona U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Verona U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Verona U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.88 + Verona U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Verona U19 attack 1.31 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sassuolo U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Verona U19 scores more
26%

Sassuolo U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sassuolo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Sassuolo U19 3–2 Verona U19

Sassuolo U19 beat Verona U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Enzo Ricci in Sassuolo.