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Sassuolo U19 vs Torino U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U19
Sassuolo U19
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Torino U19
Torino U19
2/4/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sassuolo U1953%
×Draw22%
Torino U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U19
1.90
Torino U19
1.24

Sassuolo U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U19
1.88
Torino U19
1.32

allows per match

Sassuolo U19
1.16
Torino U19
1.91

finishing

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par
Torino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U19 ↓

Torino U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sassuolo U19 or draw
75%
Sassuolo U19 or Torino U19
78%
Draw or Torino U19
47%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+
30%
Torino U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals
85%
Sassuolo U19 2+ goals
56%
Sassuolo U19 3+ goals
29%
Torino U19 1+ goals
71%
Torino U19 2+ goals
35%
Torino U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Torino U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Torino U19 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.88 + Torino U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Torino U19 attack 1.32 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sassuolo U19 scores more
53%
level
22%
Torino U19 scores more
25%

Sassuolo U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sassuolo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo U19 vs Torino U19

Sassuolo U19 beat Torino U19 6-3 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Enzo Ricci in Sassuolo.