Sassuolo U19 2–2 Lazio U19: Result & Stats

Sassuolo U19

FT

2 – 2

Lazio U19

10/18/2020

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sassuolo U1954%

×Draw23%

Lazio U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sassuolo U19Expected goals in this matchLazio U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.13

Sassuolo U19

1.83

Lazio U19

1.13

Sassuolo U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.88

creates per match

1.09

1.16

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Sassuolo U19

1.88

Lazio U19

1.09

allows per match

Sassuolo U19

1.16

Lazio U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par

Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sassuolo U19 or draw

77%

Sassuolo U19 or Lazio U19

77%

Draw or Lazio U19

46%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+

30%

Lazio U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals

84%

Sassuolo U19 2+ goals

54%

Sassuolo U19 3+ goals

28%

Lazio U19 1+ goals

68%

Lazio U19 2+ goals

31%

Lazio U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Lazio U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.88 + Lazio U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lazio U19 attack 1.09 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sassuolo U19 scores more

54%

level

23%

Lazio U19 scores more

23%

Sassuolo U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sassuolo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff