Sassuolo U19 3–0 Frosinone U19: Result & Stats

Sassuolo U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Frosinone U19

11/5/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sassuolo U1955%

×Draw22%

Frosinone U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sassuolo U19Expected goals in this matchFrosinone U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.20

Sassuolo U19

1.95

Frosinone U19

1.20

Sassuolo U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.88

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Sassuolo U19

1.88

Frosinone U19

1.24

allows per match

Sassuolo U19

1.16

Frosinone U19

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par

Frosinone U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U19 ↓

Frosinone U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sassuolo U19 or draw

77%

Sassuolo U19 or Frosinone U19

78%

Draw or Frosinone U19

45%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+

32%

Frosinone U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals

86%

Sassuolo U19 2+ goals

58%

Sassuolo U19 3+ goals

31%

Frosinone U19 1+ goals

70%

Frosinone U19 2+ goals

34%

Frosinone U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Frosinone U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Frosinone U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.88 + Frosinone U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.95

Frosinone U19 attack 1.24 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sassuolo U19 scores more

55%

level

22%

Frosinone U19 scores more

23%

Sassuolo U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sassuolo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff