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Sassuolo U19 vs Empoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U19
Sassuolo U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Empoli U19
Empoli U19
1/15/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 17Stadio Enzo Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sassuolo U1950%
×Draw23%
Empoli U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U19
1.85
Empoli U19
1.31

Sassuolo U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U19
1.88
Empoli U19
1.46

allows per match

Sassuolo U19
1.16
Empoli U19
1.82

finishing

Sassuolo U19+0.00on par
Empoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U19 ↓

Empoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sassuolo U19 or draw
73%
Sassuolo U19 or Empoli U19
77%
Draw or Empoli U19
50%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U19 wins by 2+
28%
Empoli U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sassuolo U19 1+ goals
84%
Sassuolo U19 2+ goals
55%
Sassuolo U19 3+ goals
28%
Empoli U19 1+ goals
73%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
38%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U19 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Empoli U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.82 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U19 attack 1.88 + Empoli U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Empoli U19 attack 1.46 + Sassuolo U19 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sassuolo U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Empoli U19 scores more
27%

Sassuolo U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sassuolo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sassuolo U19 vs Empoli U19

Sassuolo U19 beat Empoli U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Enzo Ricci in Sassuolo.