Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sasa vs Vardar Skopje — Cup 2020

Sasa
Sasa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
V. Zhoglev 90+3'
D. Desnikj 54'
S. Hristov 11'
9/14/2022CupCup · 1st RoundGradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sasa5%
×Draw25%
Vardar Skopje70%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
0.20
Vardar Skopje
1.44

Vardar Skopje creates 620% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sasa
0.00
Vardar Skopje
1.20

allows per match

Sasa
1.67
Vardar Skopje
0.40

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

86%No
  • No86
  • Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–128%
0–220%
0–310%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (28%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
30%
Sasa or Vardar Skopje
75%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
95%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
0%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
18%
Sasa 2+ goals
2%
Sasa 3+ goals
0%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
76%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
42%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
7%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 0.00 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.20

Vardar Skopje attack 1.20 + Sasa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sasa scores more
5%
level
25%
Vardar Skopje scores more
70%

Vardar Skopje at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Hristov
54'
D. Desnikj
90+3'
V. Zhoglev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sasa 0–3 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Sasa 3-0 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

Goals: S. Hristov (11'), D. Desnikj (54'), V. Zhoglev (90+3').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.