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Sasa vs Teteks — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Teteks
Teteks
9/16/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sasa52%
×Draw22%
Teteks26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.97
Teteks
1.34

Sasa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Teteks
1.28

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Teteks
2.46

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Teteks+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Teteks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
74%
Sasa or Teteks
78%
Draw or Teteks
48%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
30%
Teteks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
86%
Sasa 2+ goals
58%
Sasa 3+ goals
31%
Teteks 1+ goals
74%
Teteks 2+ goals
39%
Teteks 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
67%
Teteks (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Teteks away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Teteks defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.97

Teteks attack 1.28 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sasa scores more
52%
level
22%
Teteks scores more
26%

Sasa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sasa vs Teteks

Teteks beat Sasa 2-1 in Second League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.