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Sasa vs Pitu Guli — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
4 – 1
Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
9/1/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 2Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sasa66%
×Draw18%
Pitu Guli16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
2.49
Pitu Guli
1.15

Sasa creates 117% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Pitu Guli
0.88

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Pitu Guli
3.50

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Pitu Guli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
84%
Sasa or Pitu Guli
82%
Draw or Pitu Guli
34%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
44%
Pitu Guli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
92%
Sasa 2+ goals
71%
Sasa 3+ goals
45%
Pitu Guli 1+ goals
68%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
32%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
81%
Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Pitu Guli away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Pitu Guli defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.49

Pitu Guli attack 0.88 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sasa scores more
66%
level
18%
Pitu Guli scores more
16%

Sasa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sasa 4 – 1 Pitu Guli

Sasa beat Pitu Guli 4-1 in Second League on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.