Sasa 1–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Sasa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

5/4/2024

Second League · Round 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sasa42%

×Draw27%

Kozuv Gevgelija31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SasaExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Sasa

1.39

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.15

Sasa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

1.48

creates per match

0.89

1.41

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Sasa

1.48

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Sasa

1.41

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sasa or draw

69%

Sasa or Kozuv Gevgelija

73%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

58%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+

20%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals

75%

Sasa 2+ goals

40%

Sasa 3+ goals

16%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

68%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

32%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)

58%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sasa scores more

42%

level

27%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

31%

Sasa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff