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Sasa vs Karaorman — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karaorman
Karaorman
11/26/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sasa56%
×Draw23%
Karaorman21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.85
Karaorman
1.05

Sasa creates 76% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Karaorman
0.70

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Karaorman
2.23

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Karaorman+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Karaorman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
79%
Sasa or Karaorman
77%
Draw or Karaorman
44%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
32%
Karaorman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
84%
Sasa 2+ goals
55%
Sasa 3+ goals
28%
Karaorman 1+ goals
65%
Karaorman 2+ goals
28%
Karaorman 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
72%
Karaorman (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Karaorman away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Karaorman defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Karaorman attack 0.70 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sasa scores more
56%
level
23%
Karaorman scores more
21%

Sasa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sasa vs Karaorman

Sasa and Karaorman drew 2-2 in Second League on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.