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Sasa vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
1 – 0
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
3/17/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sasa38%
×Draw27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.27
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.97

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.07

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
66%
Sasa or Bashkimi Kumanovo
73%
Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo
62%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
17%
Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
72%
Sasa 2+ goals
36%
Sasa 3+ goals
14%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
70%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
33%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
53%
Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sasa scores more
38%
level
27%
Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
34%

Sasa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sasa 1–0 Bashkimi Kumanovo

Sasa beat Bashkimi Kumanovo 1-0 in Second League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.