Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sasa vs Aresimi — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Aresimi
Aresimi
2/24/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sasa35%
×Draw25%
Aresimi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.36
Aresimi
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Aresimi
1.49

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Aresimi
1.24

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Aresimi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
61%
Sasa or Aresimi
75%
Draw or Aresimi
65%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
16%
Aresimi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
74%
Sasa 2+ goals
39%
Sasa 3+ goals
16%
Aresimi 1+ goals
77%
Aresimi 2+ goals
42%
Aresimi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
47%
Aresimi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sasa scores more
35%
level
25%
Aresimi scores more
39%

Aresimi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sasa vs Aresimi

Aresimi beat Sasa 3-2 in Second League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.