Sarriana 4–2 Silva: Result & Stats

Sarriana

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Silva

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Municipal De Ribela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sarriana48%

×Draw25%

Silva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SarrianaExpected goals in this matchSilva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Sarriana

1.61

Silva

1.17

Sarriana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 110 away

1.68

creates per match

1.01

1.32

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sarriana

1.68

Silva

1.01

allows per match

Sarriana

1.32

Silva

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarriana+0.00on par

Silva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarriana ↓

Silva →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sarriana or draw

72%

Sarriana or Silva

75%

Draw or Silva

52%

Winning margin

Sarriana wins by 2+

25%

Silva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarriana 1+ goals

80%

Sarriana 2+ goals

48%

Sarriana 3+ goals

22%

Silva 1+ goals

69%

Silva 2+ goals

33%

Silva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sarriana (draw refunded)

63%

Silva (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sarriana at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Silva away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sarriana attack 1.68 + Silva defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Silva attack 1.01 + Sarriana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sarriana scores more

48%

level

25%

Silva scores more

28%

Sarriana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff