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Sarriana vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sarriana
Sarriana
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Municipal De Ribela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarriana61%
×Draw21%
Pontevedra II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarriana
2.04
Pontevedra II
1.02

Sarriana creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarriana
1.68
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Sarriana
1.32
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Sarriana+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarriana ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sarriana or draw
82%
Sarriana or Pontevedra II
79%
Draw or Pontevedra II
39%

Winning margin

Sarriana wins by 2+
37%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sarriana 1+ goals
87%
Sarriana 2+ goals
60%
Sarriana 3+ goals
33%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
64%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
27%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sarriana (draw refunded)
77%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarriana at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarriana attack 1.68 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Sarriana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sarriana scores more
61%
level
21%
Pontevedra II scores more
18%

Sarriana at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarriana vs Pontevedra II

Sarriana beat Pontevedra II 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Ribela in Sarria.