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Sarreguemines vs Valenciennes — Coupe de France 2018

Sarreguemines
Sarreguemines
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Valenciennes
Valenciennesadvanced
1/5/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade de la Blies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sarreguemines35%
×Draw21%
Valenciennes44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarreguemines
1.84
Valenciennes
2.06

Valenciennes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sarreguemines
2.75
Valenciennes
1.86

allows per match

Sarreguemines
2.25
Valenciennes
0.93

finishing

Sarreguemines+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarreguemines ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sarreguemines or draw
56%
Sarreguemines or Valenciennes
79%
Draw or Valenciennes
65%

Winning margin

Sarreguemines wins by 2+
18%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sarreguemines 1+ goals
84%
Sarreguemines 2+ goals
55%
Sarreguemines 3+ goals
28%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
87%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
61%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Sarreguemines (draw refunded)
45%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarreguemines at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarreguemines attack 2.75 + Valenciennes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Valenciennes attack 1.86 + Sarreguemines defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarreguemines scores more
35%
level
21%
Valenciennes scores more
44%

Valenciennes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Sarreguemines 0–2 Valenciennes

Valenciennes beat Sarreguemines 2-0 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Blies in Sarreguemines.