Sarre Union 0–1 Versailles: Result & Stats

Sarre Union

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Versailles

12/18/2021

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Omnisports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sarre Union10%

×Draw19%

Versailles71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarre UnionExpected goals in this matchVersailles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

2.10

Sarre Union

0.65

Versailles

2.10

Versailles creates 223% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.17

creates per match

1.88

2.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sarre Union

0.17

Versailles

1.88

allows per match

Sarre Union

2.33

Versailles

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarre Union+0.00on par

Versailles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarre Union ↓

Versailles →

0–06%

0–114%

0–214%

0–310%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sarre Union or draw

29%

Sarre Union or Versailles

81%

Draw or Versailles

90%

Winning margin

Sarre Union wins by 2+

Versailles wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Sarre Union 1+ goals

48%

Sarre Union 2+ goals

14%

Sarre Union 3+ goals

Versailles 1+ goals

88%

Versailles 2+ goals

62%

Versailles 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Sarre Union (draw refunded)

13%

Versailles (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sarre Union at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Versailles away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sarre Union attack 0.17 + Versailles defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.65

Versailles attack 1.88 + Sarre Union defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sarre Union scores more

10%

level

19%

Versailles scores more

71%

Versailles at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Versailles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff