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Sarre Union vs Sochaux — Coupe de France 2018

Sarre Union
Sarre Union
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Sochaux
Sochauxadvanced
11/29/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sarre Union8%
×Draw16%
Sochaux76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarre Union
0.63
Sochaux
2.35

Sochaux creates 273% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sarre Union
0.17
Sochaux
2.38

allows per match

Sarre Union
2.33
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Sarre Union+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarre Union ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–214%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sarre Union or draw
24%
Sarre Union or Sochaux
84%
Draw or Sochaux
92%

Winning margin

Sarre Union wins by 2+
2%
Sochaux wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Sarre Union 1+ goals
47%
Sarre Union 2+ goals
13%
Sarre Union 3+ goals
3%
Sochaux 1+ goals
90%
Sochaux 2+ goals
68%
Sochaux 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sarre Union (draw refunded)
10%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarre Union at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Sochaux away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarre Union attack 0.17 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.63

Sochaux attack 2.38 + Sarre Union defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sarre Union scores more
8%
level
16%
Sochaux scores more
76%

Sochaux at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarre Union vs Sochaux

Sochaux beat Sarre Union 6-0 in Coupe de France on November 29, 2025.