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Sarre Union vs Creteil — Coupe de France 2018

Sarre Union
Sarre Union
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Creteil
Creteil
11/16/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Omnisports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sarre Union3%
×Draw13%
Creteil84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarre Union
0.25
Creteil
2.33

Creteil creates 832% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sarre Union
0.17
Creteil
2.33

allows per match

Sarre Union
2.33
Creteil
0.33

finishing

Sarre Union+0.00on par
Creteil+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

80%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarre Union ↓

Creteil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–118%
0–221%
0–316%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (21%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sarre Union or draw
16%
Sarre Union or Creteil
87%
Draw or Creteil
97%

Winning margin

Sarre Union wins by 2+
0%
Creteil wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Sarre Union 1+ goals
22%
Sarre Union 2+ goals
3%
Sarre Union 3+ goals
0%
Creteil 1+ goals
90%
Creteil 2+ goals
67%
Creteil 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Sarre Union (draw refunded)
3%
Creteil (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarre Union at home — creates 0.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Creteil away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarre Union attack 0.17 + Creteil defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.25

Creteil attack 2.33 + Sarre Union defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Sarre Union scores more
3%
level
13%
Creteil scores more
84%

Creteil at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Creteil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarre Union vs Creteil

Creteil beat Sarre Union 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports in Sarre-Union.