Sarrabus Ogliastra 0–2 Trastevere: Result & Stats

Sarrabus Ogliastra

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Trastevere

C. Marsilii 71'

D. Lorusso 38'

10/20/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra43%

×Draw25%

Trastevere33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarrabus OgliastraExpected goals in this matchTrastevere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.35

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.57

Trastevere

1.35

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 64 away

1.49

creates per match

1.30

1.40

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.49

Trastevere

1.30

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.40

Trastevere

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Trastevere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw

67%

Sarrabus Ogliastra or Trastevere

75%

Draw or Trastevere

57%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

21%

Trastevere wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

79%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

46%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

21%

Trastevere 1+ goals

74%

Trastevere 2+ goals

39%

Trastevere 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

56%

Trastevere (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

43%

level

25%

Trastevere scores more

33%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

D. Lorusso

71'

C. Marsilii

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff