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Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sarnese
Sarnese
5/4/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 34Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra32%
×Draw26%
Sarnese41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.21
Sarnese
1.40

Sarnese creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.49
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.40
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw
59%
Sarrabus Ogliastra or Sarnese
74%
Draw or Sarnese
68%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
14%
Sarnese wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
70%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
34%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
12%
Sarnese 1+ goals
75%
Sarnese 2+ goals
41%
Sarnese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
44%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
32%
level
26%
Sarnese scores more
41%

Sarnese at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Sarrabus Ogliastra 1–2 Sarnese

Sarnese beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Is Arranas in Tertenia.