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Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Ischia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Ischia
Ischia
9/24/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra40%
×Draw26%
Ischia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.36
Ischia
1.23

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.49
Ischia
1.06

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.40
Ischia
1.24

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par
Ischia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Ischia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw
66%
Sarrabus Ogliastra or Ischia
74%
Draw or Ischia
60%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
18%
Ischia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
74%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
39%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
16%
Ischia 1+ goals
71%
Ischia 2+ goals
35%
Ischia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
54%
Ischia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Ischia away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Ischia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ischia attack 1.06 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
40%
level
26%
Ischia scores more
34%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Ischia

Sarrabus Ogliastra and Ischia drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Is Arranas in Tertenia.