Sarrabus Ogliastra 1–0 Anzio: Result & Stats

Sarrabus Ogliastra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Anzio

12/3/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 14Campo Sportivo Is Arranas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra42%

×Draw26%

Anzio33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarrabus OgliastraExpected goals in this matchAnzio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.27

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.46

Anzio

1.27

Sarrabus Ogliastra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.49

creates per match

1.14

1.40

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.49

Anzio

1.14

allows per match

Sarrabus Ogliastra

1.40

Anzio

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Anzio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarrabus Ogliastra ↓

Anzio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sarrabus Ogliastra or draw

67%

Sarrabus Ogliastra or Anzio

74%

Draw or Anzio

58%

Winning margin

Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+

20%

Anzio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals

77%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals

43%

Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals

18%

Anzio 1+ goals

72%

Anzio 2+ goals

36%

Anzio 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)

56%

Anzio (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarrabus Ogliastra at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

Anzio away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.49 + Anzio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Anzio attack 1.14 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more

42%

level

26%

Anzio scores more

33%

Sarrabus Ogliastra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sarrabus Ogliastra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff