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Anzio vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1/19/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Anzio38%
×Draw25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
1.42
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
63%
Anzio or Sarrabus Ogliastra
75%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
62%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
18%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
76%
Anzio 2+ goals
41%
Anzio 3+ goals
17%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
75%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
41%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
51%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anzio scores more
38%
level
25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
37%

Anzio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Anzio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzio vs Sarrabus Ogliastra

Anzio and Sarrabus Ogliastra drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna in Cisterna di Latina.