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Sarpsborg 08 II vs Hammerfest IF Stein — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Sarpsborg 08 II
Sarpsborg 08 II
FT
5 – 0
Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
6/10/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 II84%
×Draw10%
Hammerfest IF Stein6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 II
3.33
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.82

Sarpsborg 08 II creates 306% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 II
1.74
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.08

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 II
1.55
Hammerfest IF Stein
4.92

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par
Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 II ↓

Hammerfest IF Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 II or draw
94%
Sarpsborg 08 II or Hammerfest IF Stein
90%
Draw or Hammerfest IF Stein
16%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+
66%
Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals
96%
Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals
84%
Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals
63%
Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
56%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
20%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)
93%
Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Hammerfest IF Stein away — creates 0.08, concedes 4.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.74 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.92 → ÷2 → 3.33

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.08 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Sarpsborg 08 II scores more
84%
level
10%
Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
6%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Sarpsborg 08 II 5–0 Hammerfest IF Stein

Sarpsborg 08 II beat Hammerfest IF Stein 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.