Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–3 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Beşiktaş

T. Heintz 6'

R. Muhammed 1'

J. Lens 90', 62'

Vágner Love 66'

11/29/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF59%

×Draw20%

Beşiktaş22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.33

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.29

Beşiktaş

1.33

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.00

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

Beşiktaş

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

78%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Beşiktaş

80%

Draw or Beşiktaş

41%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

37%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

90%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

66%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

40%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

74%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

38%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

73%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 2.00 + Beşiktaş defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

59%

level

20%

Beşiktaş scores more

22%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Lens

Beşiktaş · M

9.9

Match Events

1'

R. Muhammed↳ T. Heintz

6'

T. Heintz↳ M. Lund Nielsen

50'

J. Jørgensen← J. Tamm

55'

Adem Ljajić

58'

Vágner Love← C. Larin

62'

J. Lens↳ A. Ljajić

66'

Vágner Love↳ J. Lens

68'

A. Askar← T. Heintz

78'

F. Aksoy← Adriano

79'

Fatih Aksoy

80'

Oğuzhan Özyakup

85'

J. Larsen← R. Muhammed

90+2'

E. Seçgin← J. Lens

90'

J. Lens↳ O. Özyakup

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgBeşiktaş

Overview

34%Possession66%

18Total Shots20

4Corners11

14Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots20

6On Target10

10Off Target6

2Blocked4

14Inside Box12

4Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

267Total Passes512

137Accurate Passes379

51%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2