Sarnese 4–2 Trastevere: Result & Stats

Sarnese

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Trastevere

11/10/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 11Stadio Felice Squitieri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarnese48%

×Draw24%

Trastevere29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SarneseExpected goals in this matchTrastevere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Sarnese

1.71

Trastevere

1.27

Sarnese creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

1.76

creates per match

1.30

1.24

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sarnese

1.76

Trastevere

1.30

allows per match

Sarnese

1.24

Trastevere

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarnese+0.00on par

Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarnese ↓

Trastevere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sarnese or draw

71%

Sarnese or Trastevere

76%

Draw or Trastevere

52%

Winning margin

Sarnese wins by 2+

25%

Trastevere wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sarnese 1+ goals

82%

Sarnese 2+ goals

51%

Sarnese 3+ goals

24%

Trastevere 1+ goals

72%

Trastevere 2+ goals

36%

Trastevere 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarnese (draw refunded)

63%

Trastevere (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarnese at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarnese attack 1.76 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Sarnese defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sarnese scores more

48%

level

24%

Trastevere scores more

29%

Sarnese at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff