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Sarnese vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarnese
Sarnese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Felice Squitieri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarnese58%
×Draw22%
Terracina Calcio20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarnese
1.97
Terracina Calcio
1.06

Sarnese creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarnese
1.76
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Sarnese
1.24
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Sarnese+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarnese ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sarnese or draw
80%
Sarnese or Terracina Calcio
78%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
42%

Winning margin

Sarnese wins by 2+
35%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sarnese 1+ goals
86%
Sarnese 2+ goals
58%
Sarnese 3+ goals
31%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
65%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
29%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sarnese (draw refunded)
74%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarnese at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarnese attack 1.76 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Sarnese defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sarnese scores more
58%
level
22%
Terracina Calcio scores more
20%

Sarnese at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Sarnese 1–1 Terracina Calcio

Sarnese and Terracina Calcio drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Felice Squitieri in Sarno.