Sarnese 4–0 Atletico Lodigiani: Result & Stats

Sarnese

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Lodigiani

S. Lagzir 85'

Samotti 60'

F. Uliano 45+9'

F. Malvestuto 27' (OG)

11/24/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Felice Squitieri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarnese49%

×Draw25%

Atletico Lodigiani26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SarneseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Lodigiani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Sarnese

1.56

Atletico Lodigiani

1.06

Sarnese creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.76

creates per match

0.88

1.24

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sarnese

1.76

Atletico Lodigiani

0.88

allows per match

Sarnese

1.24

Atletico Lodigiani

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarnese+0.00on par

Atletico Lodigiani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarnese ↓

Atletico Lodigiani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sarnese or draw

74%

Sarnese or Atletico Lodigiani

75%

Draw or Atletico Lodigiani

51%

Winning margin

Sarnese wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Lodigiani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarnese 1+ goals

79%

Sarnese 2+ goals

46%

Sarnese 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Lodigiani 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Lodigiani 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Lodigiani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sarnese (draw refunded)

65%

Atletico Lodigiani (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarnese at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Atletico Lodigiani away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarnese attack 1.76 + Atletico Lodigiani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Lodigiani attack 0.88 + Sarnese defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sarnese scores more

49%

level

25%

Atletico Lodigiani scores more

26%

Sarnese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

F. MalvestutoOwn goal

45+9'

F. Uliano

60'

Samotti

85'

S. Lagzir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff