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Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
2/10/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia50%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Desamparados21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.29
Sportivo Desamparados
0.74

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 74% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.25
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
0.83
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw
79%
Sarmiento Resistencia or Sportivo Desamparados
71%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
50%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
23%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
72%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
37%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
14%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
52%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
17%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
70%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 108 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.25 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
50%
level
29%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
21%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sarmiento Resistencia 0–0 Sportivo Desamparados

Sarmiento Resistencia and Sportivo Desamparados drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco).