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Sarmiento Resistencia vs AH Zapla — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AH Zapla
AH Zapla
11/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 11Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia61%
×Draw25%
AH Zapla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.54
AH Zapla
0.58

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 166% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.25
AH Zapla
0.33

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
0.83
AH Zapla
1.83

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par
AH Zapla+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

AH Zapla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw
86%
Sarmiento Resistencia or AH Zapla
75%
Draw or AH Zapla
39%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
33%
AH Zapla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
79%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
45%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
20%
AH Zapla 1+ goals
44%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
12%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
81%
AH Zapla (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 108 matches

AH Zapla away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.25 + AH Zapla defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

AH Zapla attack 0.33 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
61%
level
25%
AH Zapla scores more
14%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sarmiento Resistencia 3–1 AH Zapla

Sarmiento Resistencia beat AH Zapla 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco).