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Sarmiento Res. vs Lanús Res. — Reserve League 2022

Sarmiento Res.
Sarmiento Res.
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Lanús Res.
Lanús Res.
3/12/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sarmiento Res.32%
×Draw27%
Lanús Res.41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Res.
1.16
Lanús Res.
1.35

Lanús Res. creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Res.
0.87
Lanús Res.
1.59

allows per match

Sarmiento Res.
1.12
Lanús Res.
1.45

finishing

Sarmiento Res.+0.00on par
Lanús Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Res. ↓

Lanús Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sarmiento Res. or draw
59%
Sarmiento Res. or Lanús Res.
73%
Draw or Lanús Res.
68%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Res. wins by 2+
13%
Lanús Res. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sarmiento Res. 1+ goals
69%
Sarmiento Res. 2+ goals
32%
Sarmiento Res. 3+ goals
11%
Lanús Res. 1+ goals
74%
Lanús Res. 2+ goals
39%
Lanús Res. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Res. (draw refunded)
44%
Lanús Res. (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Res. at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

Lanús Res. away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Res. attack 0.87 + Lanús Res. defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lanús Res. attack 1.59 + Sarmiento Res. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarmiento Res. scores more
32%
level
27%
Lanús Res. scores more
41%

Lanús Res. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lanús Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Sarmiento Res. 1–4 Lanús Res.

Lanús Res. beat Sarmiento Res. 4-1 in Reserve League on March 12, 2024.