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Sarmiento Res. vs Independiente Res. — Reserve League 2022

Sarmiento Res.
Sarmiento Res.
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Res.
Independiente Res.
7/15/2025Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sarmiento Res.34%
×Draw29%
Independiente Res.37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Res.
1.08
Independiente Res.
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Res.
0.87
Independiente Res.
1.16

allows per match

Sarmiento Res.
1.12
Independiente Res.
1.29

finishing

Sarmiento Res.+0.00on par
Independiente Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Res. ↓

Independiente Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Res. or draw
63%
Sarmiento Res. or Independiente Res.
71%
Draw or Independiente Res.
66%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Res. wins by 2+
13%
Independiente Res. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sarmiento Res. 1+ goals
66%
Sarmiento Res. 2+ goals
29%
Sarmiento Res. 3+ goals
10%
Independiente Res. 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Res. 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Res. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Res. (draw refunded)
48%
Independiente Res. (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Res. at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

Independiente Res. away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Res. attack 0.87 + Independiente Res. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independiente Res. attack 1.16 + Sarmiento Res. defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sarmiento Res. scores more
34%
level
29%
Independiente Res. scores more
37%

Independiente Res. at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarmiento Res. vs Independiente Res.

Sarmiento Res. and Independiente Res. drew 2-2 in Reserve League on July 15, 2025.