Sarmiento de La Banda 1–0 Defensores de Belgrano VR

Sarmiento de La Banda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Defensores de Belgrano VR

N. Juárez 9'

8/17/2024

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Ciudad de La Banda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sarmiento de La Banda55%

×Draw28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento de La BandaExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.64

Sarmiento de La Banda

1.37

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.64

Sarmiento de La Banda creates 114% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 115 away

1.41

creates per match

0.90

0.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sarmiento de La Banda

1.41

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

Sarmiento de La Banda

0.38

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento de La Banda+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento de La Banda ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sarmiento de La Banda or draw

83%

Sarmiento de La Banda or Defensores de Belgrano VR

72%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

45%

Winning margin

Sarmiento de La Banda wins by 2+

27%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sarmiento de La Banda 1+ goals

75%

Sarmiento de La Banda 2+ goals

40%

Sarmiento de La Banda 3+ goals

16%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

47%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

14%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento de La Banda (draw refunded)

76%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento de La Banda at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.38 · 39 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento de La Banda attack 1.41 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + Sarmiento de La Banda defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sarmiento de La Banda scores more

55%

level

28%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

17%

Sarmiento de La Banda at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sarmiento de La Banda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

N. Juárez

23'

T. Pennesi← S. Leguiza

59'

Rodrigo Bernal← P. Palavecino

60'

F. Ciampichetti← I. Valsangiácomo

60'

R. Seratto← J. Bassani

72'

R. Chamorro← S. Mendoza

72'

F. Pérez← M. Pato

78'

J. Bertacín← J. Camaño

78'

N. Bustos← L. Pérez

79'

F. García← A. Pinto

79'

J. Luques← P. López

Sarmiento

Defensores

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Martel

59'▲Rodrigo Bernal←▼P. Palavecino

72'▲R. Chamorro←▼S. Mendoza

72'▲F. Pérez←▼M. Pato

79'▲F. García←▼A. Pinto

79'▲J. Luques←▼P. López

Sarmiento de La Banda substitutes

BernalChamorroPérezGarcíaLuques

Manager: J. Iturrería

23'▲T. Pennesi←▼S. Leguiza

60'▲F. Ciampichetti←▼I. Valsangiácomo

60'▲R. Seratto←▼J. Bassani

78'▲J. Bertacín←▼J. Camaño

78'▲N. Bustos←▼L. Pérez

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

PennesiCiampichettiSerattoBertacínBustos

Match Recap: Sarmiento de La Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Sarmiento de La Banda beat Defensores de Belgrano VR 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on August 17, 2024.

Goals: N. Juárez (9').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de La Banda in La Banda, Provincia de Santiago del Estero.

Sarmiento de La Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sarmiento de La Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR