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Sariñena vs Sabiñánigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sabiñánigo
Sabiñánigo
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sariñena48%
×Draw24%
Sabiñánigo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.74
Sabiñánigo
1.27

Sariñena creates 37% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Sabiñánigo
1.24

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Sabiñánigo
1.76

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Sabiñánigo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Sabiñánigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
72%
Sariñena or Sabiñánigo
76%
Draw or Sabiñánigo
52%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
26%
Sabiñánigo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
82%
Sariñena 2+ goals
52%
Sariñena 3+ goals
25%
Sabiñánigo 1+ goals
72%
Sabiñánigo 2+ goals
36%
Sabiñánigo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
63%
Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Sabiñánigo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sabiñánigo attack 1.24 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sariñena scores more
48%
level
24%
Sabiñánigo scores more
28%

Sariñena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sariñena vs Sabiñánigo

Sariñena beat Sabiñánigo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Carmen in Sariñena.