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Sariñena vs Real Zaragoza II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
CANC
15:30
Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
5/10/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 41Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena37%
×Draw26%
Real Zaragoza II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.30
Real Zaragoza II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Real Zaragoza II
1.30

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Real Zaragoza II
0.89

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Real Zaragoza II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
63%
Sariñena or Real Zaragoza II
74%
Draw or Real Zaragoza II
63%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
16%
Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
73%
Sariñena 2+ goals
37%
Sariñena 3+ goals
14%
Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
73%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
38%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
50%
Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Real Zaragoza II away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Zaragoza II attack 1.30 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sariñena scores more
37%
level
26%
Real Zaragoza II scores more
37%

Sariñena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sariñena vs Real Zaragoza II — Match Preview

Sariñena face Real Zaragoza II on May 10, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sariñena host Real Zaragoza II at Estadio El Carmen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.