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Sariñena vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena51%
×Draw23%
CDJ Tamarite25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.77
CDJ Tamarite
1.18

Sariñena creates 50% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
CDJ Tamarite
1.81

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

CDJ Tamarite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
75%
Sariñena or CDJ Tamarite
77%
Draw or CDJ Tamarite
49%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
28%
CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
83%
Sariñena 2+ goals
53%
Sariñena 3+ goals
26%
CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
69%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
33%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
67%
CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sariñena scores more
51%
level
23%
CDJ Tamarite scores more
25%

Sariñena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sariñena vs CDJ Tamarite

Sariñena beat CDJ Tamarite 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Carmen in Sariñena.