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Sariñena vs Cariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cariñena
Cariñena
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena53%
×Draw23%
Cariñena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.77
Cariñena
1.11

Sariñena creates 59% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Cariñena
0.91

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Cariñena
1.83

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Cariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
76%
Sariñena or Cariñena
77%
Draw or Cariñena
47%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
29%
Cariñena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
83%
Sariñena 2+ goals
53%
Sariñena 3+ goals
26%
Cariñena 1+ goals
67%
Cariñena 2+ goals
30%
Cariñena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
69%
Cariñena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sariñena scores more
53%
level
23%
Cariñena scores more
24%

Sariñena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sariñena vs Cariñena

Sariñena beat Cariñena 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Carmen in Sariñena.