Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sariñena vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
CANC
00:00
Binéfar
Binéfar
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 35Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena41%
×Draw25%
Binéfar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.46
Binéfar
1.29

Sariñena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
67%
Sariñena or Binéfar
75%
Draw or Binéfar
59%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
20%
Binéfar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
77%
Sariñena 2+ goals
43%
Sariñena 3+ goals
18%
Binéfar 1+ goals
72%
Binéfar 2+ goals
37%
Binéfar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
55%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sariñena scores more
41%
level
25%
Binéfar scores more
33%

Sariñena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sariñena face Binéfar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Sariñena hosting Binéfar. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sariñena host Binéfar at Estadio El Carmen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.