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Sariñena vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Sariñena
Sariñena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio El Carmen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sariñena41%
×Draw26%
Atlético Monzón34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sariñena
1.42
Atlético Monzón
1.27

Sariñena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 115 away

creates per match

Sariñena
1.72
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Sariñena
1.31
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Sariñena+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sariñena ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sariñena or draw
66%
Sariñena or Atlético Monzón
74%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
59%

Winning margin

Sariñena wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sariñena 1+ goals
76%
Sariñena 2+ goals
41%
Sariñena 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sariñena (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sariñena at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sariñena attack 1.72 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Sariñena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sariñena scores more
41%
level
26%
Atlético Monzón scores more
34%

Sariñena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Sariñena 2–1 Atlético Monzón

Sariñena beat Atlético Monzón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Carmen in Sariñena.